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Discussion: The general upper level flow pattern should remain in place this week. A ridge currently over the SW US will slowly advance E towards the SE US by this weekend. At the same time, a trough in SE Canada will squeeze the upper-jet flow from a zonal flow this week toward more of a meridional flow by this weekend as the ridge bumps the C US jet northwa...

Discussion: High levels of humidity will remain the headline through at least Tuesday of next week. We’re not dealing with record actual temperatures, however the combination of 88-95 temps with dew points above 70 will push higher relative humidity values and heat indices near or above 100 on any given day until next Tuesday. The upper levels are rather unre...

Discussion: For most of this week, the upper-jet should stay to the N of NJ leaving us in a swampy humid air mass under building heights (ridge). Tonight (Monday night) into tomorrow (Tuesday) is the only exception when a weak cold front could push through and dry out conditions (less humidity – not so much colder). I am confident that the cold front makes it...

Discussion: The upper jet is rather unremarkable for the next week or so. No major dips (troughs) or peaks (ridges). The only thing that jumps out at me is SW flow aloft from the decaying front of the trough leading into the backside of a ridge over NJ. The SW flow likely means a warm (not hot) flow of air with humidity, showers and thunderstorms around most ...

Discussion: We are looking at two parts to the main event that are already underway for NNJ (currently 3:50pm). These parts are attached to the low and will rotate through NJ as I have them illustrated in the above cover image (radar imagery used with permission from ZoneWatch Pro). Both parts have the capability to produce flash floods and severe winds.