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The market premium for the U.S. 10‑year Treasury continued rising in July, increasing to the highest level in a year. A key catalyst: inflation uncertainty related to the simmering Iran conflict and ambiguity about the Federal Reserve’s plans for monetary policy.
The 10‑year yield premium over The Capital Spectator’s estimate of “fair value” has in...
Consumer inflation eased in July, providing the Federal Reserve with a fresh round of data to stay patient on the decision of whether to raise interest rates. The bond market remains skeptical, but yesterday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for last month, along with readings from alternative CPI benchmarks, suggests that pricing pressure is, at worst, stabilizing if not easing. ...
After correcting through much of the Iran conflict to date, precious metals are starting to revive based on a set of ETFs through Tuesday’s close (Aug. 11). Meanwhile, copper’s resilience during the war has endured as the metal continues to set new highs.
Year to date, copper is the standout winner among the main exchange‑traded products offering a pure pla...
Foreign equities continue to outperform U.S. stocks this year, but there are signs that international leadership is faltering, based on a set of ETFs through Monday’s close (Aug. 10).
Thanks to a strong rally earlier in the year, the global equity market ex‑U.S. is still ahead of American shares. Vanguard International (VXUS) is up 15.7% year to date, maint...
Last week’s stock market surge sends a message that all is well, but that’s only half a loaf until the bond market confirms the recovery in expectations.
Treasury yields eased last week, although rates remain elevated relative to where they were when the war with Iran started on Feb. 28. The surprisingly weak jobs report for July takes some of the near-term...