Heisenberg Report

It’s a miss! Another one. And it comes with a warning for the White House and the Kevin Warsh Fed on household inflation concerns. “It” is the preliminary read on University of Michigan sentiment for August, released on Friday. The headline was predictably weak, at 51, down nearly 8% from

Uh-oh. A key measure of underlying demand surprised to the downside in Friday’s update on the American consumer. The so-called “control group” in the Commerce Department’s monthly retail sales report dropped 0.4% in July, undershooting every estimate. Consensus expected a 0.3% advance. Recall that the control group, which economists use

Uncle Sam’s borrowing costs were still front-page news on Friday, as the financial media spilled more digital ink editorializing around the prior day’s long-bond refunding, which saw the US pay the most since 2001 to borrow for 30 years. In the context of things that don’t matter, this matters more

On August 12, I suggested next year’s biggest macro-market story may be the interplay between Scott Bessent’s issuance strategy and a structural increase in high-grade corporate debt supply. The hyper-scalers alone are set to sell $400 billion in new debt globally both this year and next to fund the AI

Waning. That’s private-sector hiring in the US. I’m not breaking any news here. The ADP headline for July printed a six-month low and the BLS private payrolls series added just 60,000 jobs across June and July combined. So why bring it up? Because it’s a Thursday in August and I’m trying